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December 8, 2009

EPA: Greenhouse Gases Threaten Public Health and the Environment

Science overwhelmingly shows greenhouse gas concentrations at unprecedented levels due to human activity.

WASHINGTON – After a thorough examination of the scientific evidence and careful consideration of public comments, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten the public health and welfare of the American people. EPA also finds that GHG emissions from on-road vehicles contribute to that threat.

GHGs are the primary driver of climate change, which can lead to hotter, longer heat waves that threaten the health of the sick, poor or elderly; increases in ground-level ozone pollution linked to asthma and other respiratory illnesses; as well as other threats to the health and welfare of Americans.

“These long-overdue findings cement 2009’s place in history as the year when the United States Government began addressing the challenge of greenhouse-gas pollution and seizing the opportunity of clean-energy reform,” said EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson. “Business leaders, security experts, government officials, concerned citizens and the United States Supreme Court have called for enduring, pragmatic solutions to reduce the greenhouse gas pollution that is causing climate change. This continues our work towards clean energy reform that will cut GHGs and reduce the dependence on foreign oil that threatens our national security and our economy.”

EPA’s final findings respond to the 2007 U.S. Supreme Court decision that GHGs fit within the Clean Air Act definition of air pollutants. The findings do not in and of themselves impose any emission reduction requirements but rather allow EPA to finalize the GHG standards proposed earlier this year for new light-duty vehicles as part of the joint rulemaking with the Department of Transportation.

On-road vehicles contribute more than 23 percent of total U.S. GHG emissions. EPA’s proposed GHG standards for light-duty vehicles, a subset of on-road vehicles, would reduce GHG emissions by nearly 950 million metric tons and conserve 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the lifetime of model year 2012-2016 vehicles.

EPA’s endangerment finding covers emissions of six key greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride – that have been the subject of scrutiny and intense analysis for decades by scientists in the United States and around the world.

Scientific consensus shows that as a result of human activities, GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are at record high levels and data shows that the Earth has been warming over the past 100 years, with the steepest increase in warming in recent decades. The evidence of human-induced climate change goes beyond observed increases in average surface temperatures; it includes melting ice in the Arctic, melting glaciers around the world, increasing ocean temperatures, rising sea levels, acidification of the oceans due to excess carbon dioxide, changing precipitation patterns, and changing patterns of ecosystems and wildlife.

President Obama and Administrator Jackson have publicly stated that they support a legislative solution to the problem of climate change and Congress’ efforts to pass comprehensive climate legislation. However, climate change is threatening public health and welfare, and it is critical that EPA fulfill its obligation to respond to the 2007 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that determined that greenhouse gases fit within the Clean Air Act definition of air pollutants.

EPA issued the proposed findings in April 2009 and held a 60-day public comment period. The agency received more than 380,000 comments, which were carefully reviewed and considered during the development of the final findings.

Information on EPA’s findings: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment.html

November 5, 2009

Global Surface Temperature

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Based on records going back to 1880, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.

NCDC scientists also reported that the average land surface temperature for September was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. Additionally, the global ocean surface temperature was tied for the fifth warmest on record for September.

Global Temperature Highlights

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.12 degrees F above the 20th century average of 59.0 degrees F. Separately the global land surface temperature was 1.75 degrees F above the 20th century average of 53.6 degrees F.

Warmer-than-average temperatures engulfed most of the world’s land areas during the month. The greatest warmth occurred across Canada and the northern and western contiguous United States. Warmer-than-normal conditions also prevailed across Europe, most of Asia and Australia.

The worldwide ocean temperature tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest September on record, 0.90 degree F above the 20th century average of 61.1 degrees F. The near-Antarctic southern ocean and the Gulf of Alaska featured notable cooler-than-average temperatures.
Other Highlights

Arctic sea ice covered an average 2.1 million square miles in September – the third lowest for any September since records began in 1979. The coverage was 23.8 percent below the 1979-2000 average, and the 13th consecutive September with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.

Antarctic sea ice extent in September was 2.2 percent above the 1979-2000 average. This was the third largest September extent on record, behind 2006 and 2007.

Typhoon Ketsana became 2009’s second-deadliest tropical cyclone so far, claiming nearly 500 lives across the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The storm struck the Philippines on September 26, leaving 80 percent of Manila submerged.
Scientists, researchers, and leaders in government and industry use NCDC’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. The data have a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

October 27, 2009

China Drought

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , — @ 4:02 pm

China’s People Daily — More than 900 cargo ships have been held up at a section of a river in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region due to low water level amid continuous drought, the local maritime authority said Monday.

A severe drought began to hit Guangxi in early August. The average water level in Changzhou ship lock in Wuzhou City dropped by nearly three meters as of Monday, said Ou Jianfei, an officer with the Wuzhou Maritime Detachment.

Ships with a load draught of more than 1.8 meters are not allowed to pass the ship lock at present for safety concerns.

During the wet season, the ship lock allows passage of ships with a load draught of up to 4.5 meters.

The bureau has applied for water diversion from three reservoirs at the upper reaches of the Xijiang River that runs through Wuzhou and Guangxi.

The situation could turn worse if there is no major rainfall before December, the start of a dry season of Xijiang.

October 15, 2009

Arctic Ice Cap Will disappear

Professor Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at Britain’s Cambridge University said, “The summer ice cover will completely vanish in 20 to 30 years but in less than that it will have considerably retreated.”

“In about 10 years, the Arctic ice will be considered as open sea.”

“An average thickness of 1.8 metres is typical of first year ice, which is more vulnerable in the summer. And the multi-year ice is shrinking back more rapidly,” said Wadhams.

“It’s a concrete example of global change in action.

“With a larger part of the region now in first year ice, it is clearly more vulnerable. The area is now more likely to become open water each summer, bringing forward the potential date when the summer sea ice will be completely gone.”

Doctor Martin Sommerkorn, senior climate change adviser for the World Wide Fund for Nature’s international Arctic programme, said the survey the ice meltdown situation which is happening “faster than we thought”.

“Remove the Arctic ice cap and we are left with a very different and much warmer world.”

Loss of sea ice cover will “set in motion powerful climate feedbacks which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself.”

“This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world’s population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emission from massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes.”

“Today’s findings provide yet another urgent call for action to world leaders ahead of the United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen in December to rapidly and effectively curb global greenhouse gas emissions.”

October 12, 2009

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , — @ 4:34 pm

Tracking air pollution to and from the United States

When it comes to global air pollution, what goes around comes around. Air pollution from factories, traffic, and power plants in Asia wafts over the Pacific Ocean to the United States, while pollutants produced in the United States wind up in Europe.

A report by the National Research Council of the National Academies released on September 29 takes a close look at how air pollution is transported to and from the United States, concluding that pollutants from foreign sources can significantly impact U.S. air quality and affect U.S. environmental goals. The work has implications for the Environmental Protection Agency’s local air quality regulations.

“Pollution contributions from other continents affecting air quality in the United States are small but significant,” says ESSL/ACD’s David Edwards, a member of the NRC panel that issued the report. “As the EPA starts tightening regulations and lowering the pollution thresholds that urban areas must meet to comply with local air quality standards, foreign contributions will grow in importance.”

The report, “Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants To and From the United States,” is the first to examine four pollutant classes together: ozone, fine particulate matter, mercury, and persistent organic pollutants. It looks specifically at the impacts of long-range pollution transport on air quality, ground-level deposition and accumulation of pollutants, and the effects on radiative forcing (changes in the difference between the incoming and outgoing radiation energy) relevant to climate change.

The report recommends developing an “integrated pollutant attribution system” that would strengthen capabilities in emission inventories, atmospheric chemical and meteorological modeling, long-term ground-based observations, satellite remote sensing, and process focused field studies.

Tracking Air Pollution

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , — @ 4:22 pm

Tracking air pollution to and from the United States

When it comes to global air pollution, what goes around comes around. Air pollution from factories, traffic, and power plants in Asia wafts over the Pacific Ocean to the United States, while pollutants produced in the United States wind up in Europe.

A report by the National Research Council of the National Academies released on September 29 takes a close look at how air pollution is transported to and from the United States, concluding that pollutants from foreign sources can significantly impact U.S. air quality and affect U.S. environmental goals. The work has implications for the Environmental Protection Agency’s local air quality regulations.

“Pollution contributions from other continents affecting air quality in the United States are small but significant,” says ESSL/ACD’s David Edwards, a member of the NRC panel that issued the report. “As the EPA starts tightening regulations and lowering the pollution thresholds that urban areas must meet to comply with local air quality standards, foreign contributions will grow in importance.”

The report, “Global Sources of Local Pollution: An Assessment of Long-Range Transport of Key Air Pollutants To and From the United States,” is the first to examine four pollutant classes together: ozone, fine particulate matter, mercury, and persistent organic pollutants. It looks specifically at the impacts of long-range pollution transport on air quality, ground-level deposition and accumulation of pollutants, and the effects on radiative forcing (changes in the difference between the incoming and outgoing radiation energy) relevant to climate change.

The report recommends developing an “integrated pollutant attribution system” that would strengthen capabilities in emission inventories, atmospheric chemical and meteorological modeling, long-term ground-based observations, satellite remote sensing, and process focused field studies.

October 5, 2009

Extent of Ozone Injury to Trees

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , — @ 3:04 am

United States Department of Agriculture

Extent of Ozone Injury to Trees in the Western United States

he widespread nature of ozone air pollution in California and the suspected potential for ozone damage to forests near cities in other western States led to field surveys and establishment of monitoring plots beginning in the mid–1960’s. The surveys and plot results were divided into three categories depending on the evidence of injury that was documented, including (1) surveys that failed to reveal any evidence of injury even though ozone air pollution was suspected; (2) visible foliar injury that was detected although structural or functional changes were evident in the forest ecosystem; and (3) the presence of both foliar injury and structural and functional changes. Recent monitoring has shown that ozone air pollution has not caused damage to pines in Colorado or western Washington. Slight damage was found in southern Arizona, slight to moderate damage was extensive in the Sierra Nevada, and moderate to severe damage was evident in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California.

Injury Undetected
Front Range of Colorado
Ozone air quality for the Colorado Front Range country as summarized by Bohm (1992) showed daily peak concentrations sometimes exceeding 100 ppb. Highest concentrations generally occurred at valley and foothill locations of the central part of the Front Range. Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum ) dominated the lower foothills beginning at about 2,000 m. This species was the subject of extensive surveys for visible ozone symptoms and sampling of cores for tree ring analysis in two related studies (Graybill 1992). For the unmanaged old–growth stands distributed along the full north to south extent of the Front Range, no evidence of visible injury was found and tree–ring chronologies showed a consistent relationship with precipitation without any evidence of a departure that could be implicated with ozone exposure in recent decades. This result was also obtained by sampling second–growth stands in the same region (Peterson and Arbaugh 1992). Exposure of seedling P. ponderosa var. scopulorum to ozone in fumigation experiments did not indicate sensitivity to ozone at concentrations up to four times higher than the highest ambient concentrations observed at Front Range monitoring stations (Miller and others 1983).

Western Washington
Parts of the Douglas–fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii ) region of western Washington, particularly Olympic National Park, have been characterized by the lowest ozone concentrations (

Visible Injury Without Structural or Functional Changes
Southern Arizona
A cruise survey was done of ponderosa pine stands (both P. ponderosa var. scopulorum and P. ponderosa var. arizonica ) in the Rincon Mountains of Saguaro National Monument (Duriscoe 1990). A total of 660 trees were observed (20 trees per sampling point at 33 points). The two varieties of ponderosa pine were intermixed, and the survey results were not described separately for each variety. Foliage was inspected on a sample of branches cut from the lower crown of each tree. Fifteen percent of the trees (99 out of 660) were diagnosed as having ozone– induced chlorotic mottle on the foliage. Twenty–six of the 33 sample points contained at least one tree with ozone injury symptoms. A significant difference was found in number of whorls retained, with ozone sensitive genotypes retaining fewer whorls. The individual point showing the most injury was on Heartbreak Ridge, between Mica Mountain and Happy Valley Lookout. The average ozone injury for the whole sample was considered slight. Because Tucson is located 30 miles west–northwest, it is the most probable source of ozone–polluted air.

Graybill and Rose (1989) examined the tree ring chronologies of 11 ponderosa pines from Saguaro National Monument that had evidence of needle injury. Only three of these trees showed evidence of a post 1950 decline in ring growth; thus, many other variables must be considered as participating causes of changes in the observed chronologies. Further studies by Graybill (1992) of tree ring chronologies from the Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains showed four of five chronologies from ponderosa pine sites that had extreme growth suppression after 1950. No evidence of a correlation between ozone injury to foliage and change in ring growth for these sites was found, and the possible factors contributing to post–1950 growth changes are being investigated further.

Joshua Tree National Monument
Temple (1989) conducted surveys of native vegetation for ozone injury in 1984 and 1985 at Joshua Tree National Monument—which is located about 100 km east of the Los Angeles basin in southern California with maximum daily concentrations of ozone recorded after 8 p.m. because of the extra time needed for transport from the basin through San Gorgonio Pass. During 1984 and 1985 the peak value frequently exceeded 100 ppb. Permanent plots were established to include woody riparian species, namely Acacia greggii, Chilopsis linearis, Rhus trilobata , and Salix gooddingii . No symptoms were observed on any species under field conditions, however, R. trilobata was sensitive when fumigated with ozone (100 ppb, 4 hours/day, for 4 days). Subsequent field surveys revealed ozone injury symptoms on squaw bush by ambient levels of ozone when soil moisture was not a limiting factor (Stolte, personal communication).

Western Slope of the Sierra Nevada Mountains
Detection of ozone injury symptoms to ponderosa and Jeffrey pines in the Sierra Nevada, California (Miller and Millecan 1971) and subsequent surveys by Forest Service pest management specialists using 52 trend plots (Allison 1982, 1984a, 1984b, Pronos and Vogler 1981) provided the earliest data describing the extent of ozone injury and the early trends of the severity of injury. For example, Pronos and Vogler (1981) reported that between 1977 and 1980 the general trend was an increase in the amount of ozone symptoms present on pine foliage.

Peterson and others (1991) sampled crown condition and derived basal area growth trends from cores collected from ponderosa pines at sites in seven Federal administrative units (National Forests and National Parks) located from north to south in the Sierra Nevada including Tahoe National Forest, Eldorado National Forest, Stanislaus National Forest, Yosemite National Park, Sierra National Forest, Sequoia–Kings Canyon National Park, and Sequoia National Forest. In July–August 1987, four symptomatic and four asymptomatic sites were visited in each unit and only sites with ponderosa pines greater than 50 years old were selected for sampling. The symptomatic plots generally indicated increasing levels of chronic ozone injury (reduced numbers of annual needle whorls retained and chlorotic mottle symptoms on younger age classes of needles) from north to south. In general, the results of this study documented the regional nature of the ozone pollution problem originating primarily from the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin (SJVAB), as well as the San Francisco Bay Air Basin further to the west. The study found no evidence of recent large–scale growth changes in ponderosa pine in the Sierra Nevada mountains; however the frequency of trees with recent declines of growth did increase in the southernmost units. Because these units had the highest levels of ozone (and more chlorotic mottle symptoms on needles of younger age classes) strongly suggests that ozone is one of the contributing factors to decline in basal area increase. Other factors limiting tree growth in this region include periodic drought, brush competition and high levels of tree stocking.

A region–wide survey (Peterson and others 1991) of ponderosa pine provided a useful backdrop for reporting a number of other studies or surveys in the Sierra Nevada that were more narrowly focused. Another tree ring analysis and crown injury study was focused on Jeffrey pines in Sequoia–Kings Canyon National Park (Peterson and others 1989). This study suggested that decreases of radial growth of large, dominant Jeffrey pines growing on xeric sites (thin soils, low moisture holding capacity) and exposed to direct upslope transport of ozone, resulted in as much as 11 percent less in recent years compared to adjacent trees without symptoms.

Both permanent plots and cruise surveys have been employed in Sequoia, Kings Canyon (SEKI) and Yosemite (YOSE) National Parks to determine the spatial distribution and temporal changes of injury to ponderosa and Jeffrey pine within the Parks (Duriscoe and Stolte 1989). Comparisons of the same trees at 28 plots between 1980–82 and 1984–85 in SEKI showed increases of ozone injury to many trees and increases of the total number of trees with ozone injury. Ozone injury was found to decrease with increasing elevation of plots. The highest levels of tree injury in the Marble Fork drainage of the Kaweah River at approximately 1,800 m elevation were associated with hourly averages of ozone frequently peaking at 80 to 100 ppb, but seldom exceeding 120 ppb.

A cruise survey in 1986 evaluated 3,120 ponderosa or Jeffrey pines in SEKI and YOSE for ozone injury (Duriscoe and Stolte 1989). More than one–third of these trees were found to have some level of chlorotic mottle. At SEKI symptomatic trees comprised 39 percent of the sample (574 out of 1,470) and at YOSE they comprised 29 percent (479 out of 1,650). Ponderosa pines were generally more severely injured than Jeffrey pines. The Forest Pest Management (FPM) score (low score equals high injury) was 3.09 for ponderosa and 3.62 for Jeffrey (Pronos and others 1978). These cruise surveys identified the spatial distribution of injury in SEKI and YOSE, and indicated trees in drainages nearest the San Joaquin Valley were most injured.

In SEKI field plot observations of seedling health and mortality in natural giant sequoia groves from 1983 to 1986 showed that emergent seedlings in moist microhabitats had ozone–induced foliar symptoms. Seedling numbers were reduced drastically from drought and other abiotic factors during this period. A variable such as ozone that could injure seedling foliage sufficiently to reduce root growth immediately after germination could increase vulnerability to late summer drought. After fumigation giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum Bucch.) seedlings developed chlorotic mottle following in situ exposure to both ambient ozone concentrations and 1.5× ambient ozone in open top chambers during the 8 to 10 weeks after germination (Miller and others 1994). Significant differences in light compensation point, net assimilation at light saturation, and dark respiration were found between seedlings in charcoal filtered air treatments and 1.5× ambient ozone treatments (Grulke and others 1989). These results could mean that ozone has the potential to be a new selection pressure during the regeneration phase of giant sequoia, possibly reducing genetic diversity.

The Lake Tahoe Basin is located at the northern end of the Sierra Nevada sampling transect (near the Eldorado National Forest) (Peterson and others 1991). Because the Basin is distinct, its air quality is the product of mostly local pollution sources in contrast to most other Sierra Nevada sites where pollution results from long–range transport. In 1987 a survey of 24 randomly selected plots in the basin included a total of 360 trees of which 105 (29.2 percent) had some level of foliar injury (Pedersen 1989). Seventeen of these plots had Forest Pest Management (FPM) injury scores (Pronos and others 1978) that fell in the slight injury category. Of 190 trees in 16 cruise plots that extended observations to the east outside the basin, 21.6 percent had injury—less than in the basin.

Visible Ozone Injury with Structural and Functional Changes
San Bernardino Mountains
The source area for pollutants transported to the conifer forests of the San Bernardino Mountains is the South Coast Air Basin of southern California. Confirmation that ozone was the cause of foliar symptoms on ponderosa pine was reported by Miller and others (1963). Between 1976 and 1991 the weather adjusted ozone data for the May through October “smog season” showed that the number of Basin days exceeding the Federal Standard (> 120 ppb, 1 hr average) declined at an average annual rate of 2.27 days per year (Davidson 1993). The number of days with Stage I episodes (> 200 ppb, 1 hr average) declined at an average annual rate of 4.70 days per year during the same time period. For the Federal Standard the total days per year with exceedances was as high as 159 in 1978 with the lowest at 105 days in 1990. During Stage I episodes the high was 108 in 1979 and the low was 33 days in 1990. The 1974 to 1988 trends of the May through October hourly average and the average of monthly maximum ozone concentrations for Lake Gregory, a forested area in the western section of the San Bernardino Mountains, also showed a decline (Miller and McBride 1989). Similarly the injury index has shown an improvement in chronic injury to crowns of ponderosa and Jeffrey pines between 1974 and 1988, in 13 of 15 plots located on the gradient of decreasing ozone exposure in the San Bernardino Mountains (Miller and McBride 1989). The two exceptions were plots located at the highest exposure end of the gradient.

Miller and others (1991) reported that for the 1974 to 1988 period the basal area increase of ponderosa pines was generally less than competing species at 12 of the 13 plots evaluated. The total basal area for each species, as percent of the total basal area for all species ( fig. 1 ), shows that ponderosa and Jeffrey pines lost basal area in relation to competing species that were more tolerant to ozone, namely, white fir, incense cedar, sugar pine and black oak at plots with slight to severe crown injury to ponderosa or Jeffrey pine. The accumulation of more stems of ozone tolerant species in the understory presents a fuel ladder situation that jeopardizes the remaining overstory trees in the event of a catastrophic fire. The ozone tolerant species are inherently more susceptible to fire damage because of thinner bark and branches close to the ground.

Conclusion
On the basis of these investigations of ozone injury in California, Colorado, Arizona, and Washington, the mixed conifer forest type in the Sierra Nevada and southern California mountains has become the major focus of interest and concern now and in the immediate future because of extensive ozone injury to ponderosa and Jeffrey pines. If ozone levels should increase with the expansion of urban areas in other regions of the West, a monitoring protocol should be established with baseline plots observed at long–term intervals of 5 or 10 years to track forest health.

Global Warming: 2016 the last Olympics?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — @ 2:43 am

Tokyo governor, Shintaro Ishihara, warned there may be no Olympics after 2016 because global warming is an immediate threat to humankind.

“It could be that the 2016 Games are the last Olympics in the history of mankind.”

Global warming is getting worse. We have to come up with measures without which Olympic Games could not last long.

Scientists have said we have passed the point of no return,” said Ishihara.

September 30, 2009

Carbon Footprint Of Tansportation. Jump On The Bus?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , — @ 8:31 pm

Chris asked:
What is the carbon footprint of a bicycle? Am I better off taking the bus or my bike? (for long vs short distances)

I replied:
First, you’d want to look at your whole footprint… not just carbon. Carbon dioxide is just one pollution problem carbon monoxide, which causes ozone pollution, is also very important.

The EPA lists these six:
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride
(see http://worldcitizen.net/green/2009/04/17/epa-greenhouse-gases-pose-threat-to-public-health/)

In any event, I think the bike would win over the bus in all instances for “carbon footprint” size.

Even if the bus was full of people, the economies of scale would only put a small dent in the environmental costs of motor vehicles.

Besides the energy used to run the bus, you would want to also consider the energy and material to build the bus, replace tires and build the roads, etc.

A bus is hard on the roads. If everyone road bikes, the bike trails would reduce a huge amount of asphalt. Not only would this reduce the carbon footprint, it would reduce the problems of impervious surface.

Besides direct health risks, the EPA also considered these:
increased drought;
more heavy downpours and flooding;
more frequent and intense heat waves and wildfires;
greater sea level rise;
more intense storms; and
harm to water resources, agriculture, wildlife and ecosystems.

I’ll ask others what they think, too.

September 27, 2009

United Nations On Global Warming / Climate Change

The United Nations says the outlook on climate change is worse than previously thought.

Press Conference on Outcome of Secretary-General’s Climate Change Summit

Yesterday’s Climate Summit at United Nations Headquarters had achieved the Secretary-General’s goal of mobilizing political will at the highest level and focusing the attention of Heads of State and Government on the urgent need for action, Robert Orr, Assistant Secretary-General for Policy Planning, said today.

Speaking at a press conference on the outcome of the Summit, in which a record 163 countries participated at the senior level, including 101 Heads of State and Government, Mr. Orr said a subtext of the day was that “leader after leader” had acknowledged that climate change was a “leaders’ issue” and that leaders had to make decisions, which was a shift in overall recognition of whose issue it was.

The event had also seen a serious and sustained dialogue between the major world economies and the most vulnerable ones, another goal of the Secretary-General, he said. One of the most striking outcomes was that many had recognized the overall goal of negotiations to limit the global average temperature rise to a maximum of 2? Celsius. Nobody had cited a higher figure, while some of the most vulnerable countries had argued for a maximum rise of 1.5? C.

He said that among important announcements had been Japan’s confirmation that it would pursue a 25 per cent reduction against 1990 emission levels by 2020, and that it would seek to create a national carbon market linked to an international one. The European Union had announced support for a “fast-track adaptation funding facility”, for which it would provide €5 billion to €7 billion between 2010 and 2012. China had announced what it would be prepared to do in the context of an international agreement, in addition to the “robust” work it was already doing, while the President of the Maldives had announced his intention to make the island nation carbon-neutral by 2020 and to take on binding emission targets under certain conditions.

One of the biggest outcomes was that financing ?? the sine qua non for achieving a final deal ?? had finally taken centre stage, he continued, noting that many leaders had rallied around a proposal for supporting $100 billion per annum over the next decade. The Secretary-General had held a dinner with 23 leaders, bringing together those from the most vulnerable countries with those of the largest economies. To a striking extent they had agreed that they must and could reach agreement at the December Copenhagen Climate Change Conference.

Janos Pasztor, Director of the Secretary-General’s Climate Change Support Team, added that leaders at the dinner had expressed a very strong willingness to break the deadlock of trust which until now had blocked agreement on core issues. They had also discussed their willingness to do much more than they had been willing to agree upon in the context of the negotiations. That was an “optimistic sign” that agreement in Copenhagen would be possible. Leaders at the dinner had also expressed strong interest in meeting again before Copenhagen, as needed, and the Secretary-General was prepared to convene such a meeting, if desired. The next stop would be Bangkok, where a 10-day round of United Nations-sponsored negotiations of the Framework Convention on Climate Change would continue on Monday in preparation for Copenhagen.

Asked whether the divide over whether 2? C or 1.5? C should be the limit on the global average temperature rise would be a stumbling block, Mr. Orr said that, on the contrary, the range had now become clear for the first time, and the difference would have to be sorted out in negotiations.

In answer to another question, he said it was premature to talk about the binding or non-binding character of a deal in Copenhagen. It had become clear yesterday that everyone wanted a deal, and the nature of such a deal must be determined.

Asked about the domestic legislative processes of a deal, the Assistant Secretary-General said most measures on treaties of an international nature had to go through such processes, but it was important that the leaders had recognized that it was a political issue rather than a technical one. Many leaders had recognized that they must come to an international agreement in order to deliver at home. Although there might be some pain domestically, there was also some gain to be made. While the legislative processes might take time, leaders had now recognized that it was important to begin work now on what must be done.

Mr. Pasztor added that, while it was a political project requiring recourse to domestic legislation, it also called for considerable domestic political work. Very often it was a question of the leaders making the political commitment to carry out that work.

Responding to another question, Mr. Orr said yesterday’s event marked the first time that financing had been recognized as a central issue. Now that some numbers had “hit the table”, discussion had become more concrete. A significant development was that nearly all speakers had stressed that financing should consist of both public and private funds, and that it should be in addition to official development assistance (ODA).

He cautioned that there was no clear outcome on whether China or other developing countries would participate in such a financial framework, or if developing countries would pay into the framework. However, some interesting ideas had been tabled, including the notion that only the least developed countries would not be expected to contribute, or that all developing countries would see a net positive outcome from the scheme.

Mr. Pasztor added that whether contributions should be determined in accordance with percentage of gross domestic product or national carbon footprint would have to be sorted out at the level of finance ministers. However, the principle was that they had to involve a mixture of public and private financing.

Asked about technical support for developing countries, he said that matter was partly linked to money and partly to intellectual property regimes. There were indications that some technologies could be made available without going through the open-market system.

Responding to a question about corporate accountability, specifically whether a company participating in the United Nations Leadership Forum on Climate Change could claim an endorsement by the Organization, Mr. Orr said participation by any company did not entail such an endorsement.

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